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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."