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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.